大統領の顔を替えても、PERの窓は直らない｜A New President Will Not Repair the P/E Window
26 Oct 2026 JST · U.S. Markets / Political Risk / Satirical Brief Joachim Klement's Reuters commentary warns against forward P/E ratios resting on optimistic earning
26 Oct 2026 JST · U.S. Markets / Political Risk / Satirical Brief
Joachim Klement's Reuters commentary warns against forward P/E ratios resting on optimistic earnings estimates. It is the author's argument, not a Reuters institutional view.
Will the Next President Guarantee Those Earnings?
I would add a question: how dependable are the political and economic assumptions that produce the profits?
Trump or anti-Trump, changing the portrait does not make corporate revenue and costs grow out of a ballot paper. Explain what improves and which burdens remain. Otherwise, campaign posters and bullish research begin to look like remarkably similar products.
Different administrations can produce different results. Tax, trade, immigration, regulation and foreign-policy choices can change company profits and the multiples investors pay. Nor can trailing P/E, a historical measure, resolve every weakness of forecasts.
What may stay the same is not the terminal P/E, but the sales pitch: the future will sort it out.
I examine earnings durability rather than partisan colors. Disappointing profits can shrink the denominator; damaged confidence can shrink the multiple. A presidential portrait will not repair a window that breaks in both panes.
Opinion and satire, not a forecast of the next president or the stock market's destination.
