004｜半導体急落、売りは市場全体へ｜The Selloff Spread Beyond Chips
The October U.S. CPI release at 22:30 JST on 10 November activated the main downside condition identified in the previous Tokyo closing note. Headline CPI rose 0.4%
Re-Cut · 11 November 2026 · 12:19 JST
The Tokyo morning session rejected the most bearish version of the 07:19 pre-open scenario. At 11:35 JST, the Nikkei 225 was quoted at 60,942.48, up 482.90 points or 0.80%, while TOPIX closed the morning at 3,924.51, up 30.80 points or 0.79%. The Nikkei opened at 60,525.30 and initially fell as low as 60,318.08, but recovered above both the 60,000 threshold and the previous close. TOPIX also cleared the 3,900 test.
The semiconductor complex did not follow Nvidia's more-than-6% U.S. decline mechanically. Advantest ended the morning at JPY30,260, up 1.92%, and Tokyo Electron at JPY9,224, up 2.42%. At 11:00, the two stocks contributed 163.97 and 94.05 Nikkei points, respectively. The Prime Market had 830 advances, 663 declines and 52 unchanged at that time, with 24 of 33 sectors higher. This was not a broad euphoric rebound, but neither was it a concentrated semiconductor collapse.
SoftBank Group remained the major exception. The stock closed the morning at JPY3,765, down 2.76%, after falling to JPY3,465 at 09:19. That low was about 10.5% below the previous close, but the stock recovered roughly 8.7% from the low by the morning close. The company's quarterly loss and Nvidia exposure created company-specific pressure, while the broader equipment and test names rose.
The rate and currency constraints remain visible. USD/JPY was 158.83 at 11:50 JST. A third-party live yield monitor showed the 10-year JGB yield at 2.723%, the two-year at 1.772%, and the U.S. 10-year yield at 4.983%. The market therefore absorbed the CPI shock without receiving relief from lower rates or a stronger yen.
My judgment changes from “the rate constraint has become the dominant Tokyo driver” to “the rate constraint is active, but Tokyo is differentiating demand beneficiaries from financing and company-specific risk.” The morning evidence supports the TSMC and CoreWeave demand signals in Advantest and Tokyo Electron, while keeping SoftBank Group and other balance-sheet-sensitive AI names under separate scrutiny.
The afternoon falsification tests are whether the Nikkei can hold 60,900 and test 61,000, whether TOPIX stays above 3,900, and whether market breadth improves from the 11:00 reading. A break back below 60,000 with Advantest and Tokyo Electron giving up their gains would restore the pre-open downside case. A stable close above 60,900 with broader participation would confirm that Tokyo has absorbed the initial U.S. rate shock.
The October U.S. CPI release at 22:30 JST on 10 November activated the main downside condition identified in the previous Tokyo closing note. Headline CPI rose 0.4% month on month, above the Reuters consensus of 0.3%, while core CPI increased 0.3%, above the 0.2% consensus. Because the 2025 appropriations lapse left October 2025 price collection incomplete, the Bureau of Labor Statistics could not publish normal 12-month changes for many series. The monthly figures are official; broad year-on-year comparisons are not available on the usual basis.
The market response was material. The U.S. two-year yield rose 18.44 basis points to 4.731%, the 10-year yield rose 12.55 basis points to 4.988%, and USD/JPY advanced 0.58% to 158.81. Reuters preliminary closing data showed the S&P 500 down 0.38%, the Nasdaq down 0.74% and the Dow down 0.31%. Nvidia lost more than 6% for a second consecutive decline, reversing the roughly 2% premarket rebound noted in the 20:26 JST update. The board investigation is confirmed; the underlying espionage allegations remain unverified and should not be treated as established fact.
The Chicago Nikkei futures signal was negative but not a clean break of 60,000. A third-party real-time quote showed the dollar-denominated December contract at 60,225 at 16:52 U.S. time, down 740 points from the prior futures close and 234.58 points below the Tokyo cash close of 60,459.58. The session range was 59,670 to 61,060. This is an indicative live quote, not an official settlement.
CoreWeave's post-close results provide important counterevidence to an AI-demand-collapse thesis. The company reported third-quarter revenue of USD3.661 billion, up 168% year on year, revenue backlog of USD132.5 billion, up 138%, and raised FY2026 revenue guidance to USD13.0-13.3 billion. Its shares rose more than 7% in extended trading. At the same time, the net loss widened to USD709 million, net interest expense reached USD846 million, and capital-expenditure guidance was USD37-39 billion. Demand is strong; the fault line remains the cost and availability of capital.
My judgment therefore changes in a specific way. The previous conditional warning that hotter CPI could make discount rates dominate the TSMC demand signal has now been triggered. That is a negative pre-open change for high-duration semiconductor and AI shares. It is not evidence that end demand has disappeared. Tokyo should separate Nvidia-linked valuation and governance pressure from the still-strong data-center order cycle.
The first tests are the Nikkei 60,000 level, TOPIX 3,900, USD/JPY 159, and the 09\:00-09\:30 VWAP behavior of SoftBank Group, Advantest and Tokyo Electron. A cash-market hold above 60,000 with improving breadth would show that TSMC and CoreWeave demand evidence can absorb the rate shock. A break below 60,000 accompanied by TOPIX weakness and renewed selling in the three index leaders would confirm that the rate constraint has become the dominant Tokyo driver.
The Tokyo close refined, rather than reversed, the midday judgment. The Nikkei 225 finished at 60,459.58, up 1,684.08 points or 2.87%, and held above 60,000 for the first close in three sessions. TOPIX rose 75.55 points or 1.98% to 3,893.71, falling back below the 3,900 level it had held at the morning close. Prime Market breadth remained positive, with 1,198 advances, 327 declines and 20 unchanged; 24 of 33 industry groups rose.
Leadership became slightly more concentrated. SoftBank Group, Advantest and Tokyo Electron contributed 381.87, 283.71 and 259.91 Nikkei points, respectively. Their combined 925.49-point contribution accounted for about 55% of the Nikkei's total gain, up from roughly 52% at the morning close. The index reached an intraday high of 60,743.97 at 14:45 and then closed 284.39 points below that high.
A new fundamental semiconductor catalyst arrived during the afternoon. TSMC announced October revenue of NT\$586.89 billion, up 14.7% from September and 59.7% from a year earlier. The figure exceeded the previous monthly record reported for August. This means the afternoon semiconductor strength was supported by fresh foundry demand evidence, not only by a rebound from last week's forced selling.
The rate and currency response to the Bank of Japan's Summary of Opinions was muted. The 10-year JGB yield ended around 2.672%, while the afternoon rise was also attributed to a weak 30-year auction. The Bank of Japan's official 17:00 foreign-exchange data put USD/JPY at 158.01-02, within a narrow 157.88-158.13 range. The hawkish language therefore strengthened the December-hike narrative without creating a large yen or bond shock during the session.
Before the U.S. CPI release at 22:30 JST, Reuters reported Nvidia up about 2% in premarket trading, the U.S. two-year yield at 4.58%, and markets pricing an 82.2% probability of a December Fed hike. The next Tokyo session will depend on whether CPI validates the rate constraint and whether the TSMC revenue signal can keep Japanese semiconductor leaders above their closing levels.
The Tokyo morning session on 10 November validated the overnight rebound, but with a more concentrated structure than the headline suggested. The Nikkei 225 closed the morning at 60,475.78, up 1,700.28 points or 2.89%, after opening at 59,372.28. TOPIX ended at 3,902.85, up 84.69 points or 2.22%. On the Prime Market, 1,208 stocks advanced, 320 declined and 17 were unchanged; 26 of 33 industry groups rose.
The move above 60,000 was not merely an overnight futures gap: the cash index continued to rise after the open. However, leadership became more concentrated as the morning progressed. SoftBank Group, Tokyo Electron and Advantest contributed 400.48, 245.24 and 239.48 Nikkei points, respectively—885.20 points in total, or about 52% of the index's 1,700.28-point gain. TOPIX underperformed the Nikkei, and breadth narrowed from 1,322 advances and 203 declines around 10:00 to 1,208 advances and 320 declines at the morning close.
The Bank of Japan's Summary of Opinions, released at 8:50 JST, added a new constraint. Several opinions said underlying inflation had reached 2% and urged the Bank to bring the policy rate toward neutral sooner or without excessive caution. Other members warned that the effects of past hikes had not fully appeared and pointed to weak consumption, wage uncertainty and the sustainability of AI demand. This is evidence of a more hawkish debate, not confirmation of a December decision. Reuters said the summary strengthened the case for near-term tightening; economists it polled expected a December increase to 1.5%.
USD/JPY was near 158.07 late in the morning, so the policy signal had not produced a large yen rally. The next falsification tests are whether the Nikkei holds 60,000, TOPIX holds 3,900 and breadth stops narrowing in the afternoon, followed by the U.S. October CPI at 22:30 JST.
U.S. markets closed sharply higher on 9 November. The Dow gained 2.15% to 52,389.75, the S&P 500 rose 2.35% to 7,549.94 and the Nasdaq advanced 2.74% to 25,253.14. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged about 6.9%, led by AMD at +13.3% and Broadcom at +8.8%, while Nvidia fell 4.2%.
This changes the 9 November 20:22 JST risk assessment. Nvidia's board investigation remained a material company-specific risk, but the feared contagion into the broader semiconductor complex did not occur during the U.S. session. The market instead priced a sharp distinction between Nvidia-specific leadership risk and broader chip demand.
At 5:12 JST, CME Nikkei futures were quoted at 60,870, 1,900 points above the Osaka comparison level. USD/JPY was around 157.89, the U.S. 10-year yield around 4.86% and the 2-year yield around 4.55%. The rally therefore did not rely on a large fall in yields or renewed yen weakness. A decline in oil prices helped risk appetite, with WTI futures around USD86.05, down 5.26%.
The immediate tests are the Bank of Japan's Summary of Opinions at 8:50 JST and the U.S. October CPI at 22:30 JST. A large Tokyo gap-up should not be treated as proof of a completed repair until the Nikkei, TOPIX and semiconductor leaders hold VWAP through 9:30.
At the Tokyo close on 9 November, the Nikkei 225 finished at 58,775.50, up 1,340.73 points or 2.33%. TOPIX closed at 3,818.16, up 2.97%. The rebound remained broad, with 1,415 Prime Market stocks rising, 123 falling and 13 unchanged; 31 of 33 industries advanced. However, the Nikkei surrendered 635.84 points from the morning close and 664.68 points from the intraday high of 59,440.18. The midday conclusion therefore survives only in qualified form: forced selling was broadly reversed, but upside momentum faded.
After the Tokyo close, Nvidia shares fell 4.5% in U.S. premarket trading. Nvidia's board confirmed that an independent committee and outside counsel will investigate reports that CEO Jensen Huang was targeted by a foreign intelligence effort. The board said it has no reason to believe U.S. national security or Nvidia secrets were compromised and expressed confidence in Huang. Allegations concerning the alleged intelligence link have not been independently verified by Reuters. U.S. futures were positive at 5:10 a.m. ET, but Nasdaq 100 futures rose only 0.21%, less than Dow futures at 0.73%.
Japan's Ministry of Finance separately disclosed the daily breakdown of historical yen-buying intervention: JPY7.9756 trillion on 30 July, JPY5.5523 trillion on 31 July and JPY1.8714 trillion on 3 August, totaling JPY15.3993 trillion. This was a new disclosure of past operations, not evidence of a new intervention on 9 November. USD/JPY was 157.94–95 at 5:00 p.m. JST, almost unchanged from Friday's 157.93 close after trading around 158.28–29 at noon.
At the Tokyo morning close on 9 November, the Nikkei 225 rose 1,976.57 points, or 3.44%, to 59,411.34. TOPIX gained 126.84 points, or 3.42%, to 3,834.83. Breadth was unusually broad: 1,479 Prime Market stocks advanced, 59 declined and four were unchanged; 32 of 33 industry groups rose.
This changes the 7 November judgment. The previous view was that the semiconductor rebound had survived the U.S. close but that strong payrolls had restored the rate constraint. The new evidence is that Friday's Tokyo-wide deleveraging has now been challenged not only by the Nikkei but also by TOPIX, market breadth and almost every industry group. Advantest and Tokyo Electron contributed 310.68 and 269.52 Nikkei points, respectively.
The change is not a declaration that the AI complex has fully recovered. SoftBank Group remained weak during the morning and Kioxia lagged at the open. The Nikkei remained below 60,000 and TOPIX below its 5 November close of 3,940.39. At noon, USD/JPY was 158.28–29, 35 sen weaker for the yen than Friday's 17:00 level, while the market still priced the probability of a December Fed rate increase at nearly 80%. Tuesday's U.S. CPI, the performance of Kioxia and SoftBank Group, and the afternoon session's breadth are the immediate falsification tests.
Verified 2026-11-07 · U.S. close, payrolls and BOJ Governor Ueda
What changed — fact. Friday's premarket semiconductor rebound survived the U.S. cash session, but it was only a partial repair after Thursday's collapse. The Nasdaq Composite rose 1.1%, the S&P 500 gained 0.3% and the Dow fell 0.5%. The Philadelphia semiconductor index recovered about 4.2% after losing more than 12% in the previous session. Nvidia gained about 3%, AMD 11%, Intel 8% and Micron 5%. This confirms that buyers returned to chips, but not that the AI-policy and valuation shock has been erased.
Macro constraint — fact. The U.S. added 165,000 nonfarm jobs in October, far above the 65,000 Reuters consensus. Unemployment fell to 4.1%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% month on month and 3.1% year on year. August and September payrolls were revised up by a combined 84,000. After the report, market pricing for a December Fed hike moved back toward 80%. The dollar index rose 0.77% to 102.26; USD/JPY weakened to 158.43. The U.S. 10-year yield was around 4.85% and the two-year around 4.52% in late New York trading.
BOJ signal — fact, not a commitment. At an IMF seminar, Governor Kazuo Ueda said wages are growing at a pace consistent with 2% inflation, underlying inflation is around target and there are some upside risks. Energy prices are beginning to lift consumer inflation, with further acceleration expected into early 2027. He also said the BOJ watches other central banks closely because their actions affect foreign exchange and interest rates. This was not a promise to hike in December, but it does not validate Friday's market shift toward a BOJ hold either.
Tokyo transmission — inference. Monday's Tokyo open now faces a split signal. The confirmed U.S. chip rebound supports semiconductor test, equipment, memory, optical networking and AI-power shares. Strong payrolls, higher U.S. rates and a weaker yen add support to exporters but revive the valuation constraint for long-duration growth stocks. For banks and insurers, a rebound in JGB yields would reverse part of Friday's pressure; a renewed bond rally would instead confirm that financial-stability concerns still dominate.
Counterpoint and next checks. The semiconductor index recovered only about one-third of Thursday's fall, the Dow remained lower and U.S. indexes still finished the week down. The rebound can therefore be a relief rally rather than a durable regime change. Before the 9 November Tokyo open, confirm U.S. index futures, CME Nikkei futures, USD/JPY, the U.S. two- and ten-year yields and any weekend policy headlines. After the open, require multiple semiconductor leaders to hold above their opening prices and VWAP, TOPIX to hold 3,700, Prime Market breadth to improve materially, and Japanese two- and ten-year yields to stabilize.
Verified 2026-11-06 · Tokyo close and post-close policy check
What changed — fact. The tentative midday rebound did not become a recovery. The Nikkei 225 closed at 57,434.77, down 3,643.13 points or 5.96%, after touching 56,745.81. It was the fifth consecutive decline, the lowest close since April, and more than 20% below the June peak of 72,366, meeting the common definition of a technical bear market. TOPIX closed at 3,707.99, down 232.40 points or 5.90%. Prime Market breadth deteriorated to 21 advances, 1,523 declines and 7 unchanged; all 33 industry groups fell. Turnover reached ¥12.480829 trillion.
Why it matters — inference. At 12:18 JST I changed the thesis from a semiconductor-led rotation to market-wide deleveraging. The close confirms that change and adds a second transmission channel: monetary-policy pricing. The 10-year JGB yield fell 14.5 basis points to 2.61%, the two-year yield fell 13.5 basis points to 1.72%, and the five-year yield fell 16.5 basis points to 2.025%. Reuters reported that markets now assigned a 58% probability to a BOJ hold in December and 42% to a hike. The equity shock is therefore influencing the expected path of Japanese rates, not only equity-sector leadership.
Policy development — fact, with limits. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said proceeds associated with the BOJ's faster ETF disposals should support investment in economic-security and growth areas through a new special-account framework. The BOJ decided on 30 October to raise the annual disposal pace to ¥860 billion in book value from ¥330 billion. This is not a new BOJ market-support operation and does not cancel ETF sales. At 18:26 JST, Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said the amount of additional BOJ remittances and the specific uses of the money still have to be determined during the budget process. The policy direction is public; the funding amount and project allocation are not final.
Tokyo transmission. For the next Tokyo session, semiconductor test and equipment, memory, optical networking and AI-power names remain the first beta channel. Banks and insurers now require a separate rates check: lower JGB yields may ease discount-rate pressure on growth stocks, but they also compress the expected benefit from BOJ tightening and may signal financial-stability stress. Economic-security beneficiaries may eventually include semiconductors, defence and power infrastructure, but the government announcement is not yet an earnings contract.
Counterpoint and next checks. The first counter-signal is visible but unconfirmed. At 04:14 ET, Nasdaq 100 futures were up 1.48%; Nvidia rose 3.6% premarket and AMD, Intel, Broadcom and Micron gained 5% to 8.3%. A normal-session close is required before calling this a semiconductor repair. A former BOJ chief economist, Seisaku Kameda, told Reuters that a December hike remains likely unless volatility persists or the AI shock becomes a severe U.S. downturn. TOPIX also held just above the 3,700 marker cited by market participants. The next tests are the U.S. October payroll report at 08:30 ET, Governor Ueda's remarks at about 01:00 JST on 7 November, the Friday U.S. cash-session close, and Monday's Prime Market breadth, JGB yields and USD/JPY.
Verified 2026-11-06 · Tokyo morning session
What changed — fact. At 07:22 JST I set a clear test: if banks, autos, trading houses and domestic-demand stocks lost relative strength together with semiconductors, the previous rotation thesis had to be downgraded to market-wide de-risking. That condition was met. The Nikkei 225 ended the morning at 57,858.61, down 3,219.29 points or 5.27%. TOPIX fell 213.89 points to 3,726.50, down 5.43%. On the Prime Market, only 23 stocks rose while 1,515 fell; all 33 industry groups declined.
Why it matters — inference. Thursday’s Tokyo market could still be described as an internal rotation away from AI and semiconductors. Friday morning cannot. The selloff spread into the broad market and overwhelmed the previous relative strength in financials, autos, trading houses and domestic demand. This is no longer only an index-weight problem caused by Advantest, Tokyo Electron and SoftBank Group; market breadth confirms a portfolio-wide reduction of risk.
Rates and FX — fact. Reuters reported USD/JPY briefly at 157.40, the strongest yen in one week. U.S. 10-year and two-year Treasury yields were around 4.84% and 4.47%, respectively, while the probability of a 25-basis-point Fed hike in December was repriced to about 70% from more than 80% on Wednesday. Lower yields did not prevent the equity liquidation.
Tokyo transmission. The immediate watch list remains semiconductor test and equipment, memory, optical networking and AI power infrastructure. The broader confirmation list is now banks, insurers, autos, trading houses, food, real estate and transport. A rebound in the Nikkei alone is insufficient. I require TOPIX breadth, fewer new lows and multiple sectors reclaiming VWAP.
Counterpoint and next checks. The U.S. regulatory concern is not enacted federal policy. The Nikkei recovered from an intraday decline of more than 4,000 points to a 3,219-point morning loss, so some forced selling may already have met buyers. A durable afternoon recovery above VWAP with improving breadth would weaken the liquidation thesis. Confirm the Tokyo close, Prime Market breadth and futures after 15:30. The U.S. October payrolls report is due later Friday, and BOJ Governor Ueda is scheduled to speak at about 01:00 JST on 7 November. No new BOJ policy decision was released during the morning.
Verified 2026-11-06 · U.S. close on 5 Nov · Tokyo pre-open
What changed — fact. The previous Tokyo close showed a split market: AI and semiconductor names fell sharply while TOPIX, autos, financials and domestic sectors held up. The U.S. close escalated that sector rotation into a broad risk event. Reuters reported the S&P 500 down 4.32%, the Nasdaq Composite down 5.46%—its worst daily fall in 19 months and more than 10% below its 6 October record—and the Dow down 3.45%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell as much as 11% intraday. Nvidia lost 9.3% and AMD 17.3% in the verified closing data already documented below.
Cross-asset facts. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell 5.93 basis points to 4.835%, yet lower yields did not stop the technology selloff. Brent settled 3.88% higher at USD 98.29, reversing part of the previous energy-price relief. Reuters placed USD/JPY at 157.63 after the yen gained 0.46%. A third-party CME quote showed yen-denominated Nikkei futures at 58,330 at 14:15 U.S. time, about 4.5% below the Tokyo cash close; this was a live quote, not a verified official settlement.
Tokyo transmission — inference. The first-order pressure is on semiconductor test and equipment, memory, optical networking, power and cooling. But Tokyo already absorbed 10–15% declines in several leaders on 5 November, so a large gap down can produce either forced selling or an oversold rebound. A green opening print is not evidence of repair. I require a VWAP reclaim, a higher low and breadth across Advantest, Tokyo Electron, Kioxia, Disco, Screen and their AI-infrastructure peers.
The second-order test is broader. If banks, insurers, autos, trading houses and domestic demand names also lose relative strength, the prior “rotation” thesis must be downgraded to a market-wide de-risking thesis. Conversely, if TOPIX breadth holds while the Nikkei remains semiconductor-heavy and weak, the split-market interpretation survives.
Counterpoint. Concern about tighter AI and data-center rules is not enacted federal policy. A divided U.S. government, presidential veto power and state-level permitting differences can limit or delay restrictions. Falling Treasury yields are also valuation support. If chip shares stop making fresh lows and Tokyo breadth improves after 09:05, 09:15 and 09:30 JST, the capitulation reading may prove too bearish.
Next checks. Watch the Tokyo gap versus 58,000–58,500 futures indications, VWAP and market breadth; then the U.S. October payrolls report later on Friday. BOJ Governor Ueda is scheduled to speak at about 01:00 JST on 7 November. The 5 November BOJ minutes describe the September meeting; they are not a new policy decision.
TokyoBrainie — U.S. closing tape, November 5, 2026. Screenshots were captured at 06:28–06:32 JST on November 6.
The screenshots show a broad selloff, with especially large losses across memory, GPUs, semiconductor equipment and AI infrastructure. NVDA fell 9.26%, AMD 17.26%, MU 17.46%, and AVGO 10.43% on the heatmap. LRCX and AMAT were also sharply lower. These are recorded screen readings.
The five-minute charts show an opening plunge, a rebound that failed to hold, and renewed weakness. MSFT displayed a similar pattern, suggesting that the pressure extended beyond semiconductor rotation.
The right-edge prices—NVDA \$181.80, AMD \$406.11, MU \$662.44 and MSFT \$532.55—were captured after the regular session. They are extended-hours observations, not verified official closing prices. The percentage at the top of each chart describes the current five-minute bar, not the daily return.
Reuters cited concerns about AI spending and scrutiny of data-center expansion. That is a reported market explanation, not proof of enacted restrictions or a collapse in long-term demand.
My next test is whether rebounds begin to hold across chips, equipment and major technology stocks. Fresh lows would invalidate an early recovery interpretation. APP and COST were positive exceptions on the heatmap; they do not establish broad market strength.
