> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://tokyobrainie.ghost.io/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Quick Cut｜半導体軍に夜間の激震——キオクシアPTS12％安、好決算でも売られる日本株｜Japan’s Chip Selloff: Strong Earnings, Weak Prices - URL: https://tokyobrainie.ghost.io/news-cutting-room-40abc361-49e58f4e-en/ - Published: 2026-10-30T15:00:00.000Z - Updated: 2026-11-11T00:18:51.000Z - Description: Event times: Tokyo cash close at 15:30 JST; Ferrotec disclosure at 17:30 JST on 2 Nov 2026 Verified: 2 Nov 2026, 20:25 JST What changed. The midday conclusion that J - Author: TokyoBrainie - Tags: News Cutting Room, Signal Room, English, #Import 2026-11-11 08:54 [English](https://tokyobrainie.ghost.io/news-cutting-room-40abc361-49e58f4e-en/) · [日本語](https://tokyobrainie.ghost.io/news-cutting-room-40abc361-49e58f4e-ja/) **Event times:** Tokyo cash close at 15:30 JST; Ferrotec disclosure at 17:30 JST on 2 Nov 2026 **Verified:** 2 Nov 2026, 20:25 JST **What changed.** The midday conclusion that Japanese semiconductor shares had moved from a blanket sector selloff to company-specific selection survived the closing auction. The Nikkei ended at 63,081.86, down 0.33%, while the Topix fell 0.88%. Market breadth stayed weak, with 505 Prime Market stocks up and 1,011 down. Inside semiconductors, however, Lasertec gained 8.01%, Tokyo Electron 5.16% and Advantest 2.61%, while Kioxia lost 15.78%, SCREEN 18.96% and Ibiden 3.75%. At 17:30 JST, Ferrotec revised its nine-month fiscal-year forecast upward. Sales rose from ¥380 billion to ¥400 billion, operating profit from ¥60 billion to ¥68 billion, ordinary profit from ¥55 billion to ¥66 billion, and net profit from ¥36 billion to ¥48 billion. The company cited stronger demand for ceramics, quartz, vacuum seals and metal processing used in semiconductor equipment for generative AI, as well as thermo-modules for optical transceivers in AI data centers. It also said the mix of high-margin products had strengthened further since its previous forecast. **Old thesis and reason for revision.** The original thesis expected the 7.2% SOX decline to dominate Japanese chip stocks as a sector. The midday revision moved to company-level selection. The close confirmed that revision, and Ferrotec extended the evidence beyond large index names into semiconductor materials and thermal control. **Limits and counterevidence.** The broader market did not confirm a durable risk-on turn. Ferrotec's disclosure came after the cash close, so no Tokyo cash-price reaction has been verified. Its forecast assumes USD/JPY at 158, and management has not yet revised the medium-term plan. The next cash session is 4 November after two U.S. sessions; a renewed broad SOX decline could overwhelm this company-specific evidence. **Sources:** [Reuters — Tokyo close and semiconductor selection](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japans-nikkei-ends-lower-kioxia-tanks-tokyo-electron-rises-strong-outlook-2026-11-02/?ref=tokyobrainie.ghost.io) · [Ferrotec official disclosure](https://www.ferrotec.co.jp/php/download.php?f=jp/20261102562245.pdf&ref=tokyobrainie.ghost.io) · [Ferrotec IR releases](https://www.ferrotec.co.jp/ir/ir%5Fnews%5Frelease.php?ref=tokyobrainie.ghost.io) · [Kabutan — Tokyo close](https://s.kabutan.jp/news/n202611020915/?ref=tokyobrainie.ghost.io) · [JPX market holidays](https://www.jpx.co.jp/corporate/about-jpx/calendar/index.html?ref=tokyobrainie.ghost.io) --- **Updated 2 Nov 2026 12:25 JST · Tokyo Midday / Semiconductor Selection / Price Test** **What changed.** The opening hypothesis was that the U.S. semiconductor shock and the sharp PTS declines would force Japanese chip stocks into a broad sector-beta selloff before company-specific fundamentals could matter. The morning session only partly confirmed that view. The Nikkei remained lower, but the semiconductor group split sharply: Tokyo Electron, Lasertec and Advantest recovered into positive territory, while Kioxia and SCREEN stayed in double-digit declines and Ibiden remained weak. **Market transmission.** This is no longer a clean “sell every Japanese chip name” signal. The market is repricing earnings quality, guidance and positioning company by company. Tokyo Electron’s profit outlook and expanded buyback supported relative strength; Kioxia and SCREEN showed that strong AI-related demand does not protect a stock when guidance or expectations disappoint. The broader tape is not risk-on: the Nikkei’s morning close was 63,095.11, down 195.00 points, and market breadth remained negative. **Old thesis and reason for revision.** The earlier thesis expected sector beta to dominate the first Tokyo session after the SOX shock. It is revised because observed prices after the open showed persistent winners and losers within the same industry. The risk-off impulse survived at the index level, but the blanket-chip-selloff thesis did not. **What would invalidate this revision.** A renewed afternoon decline in Tokyo Electron, Advantest and Lasertec alongside the existing falls in Kioxia and SCREEN would restore the sector-beta interpretation. Conversely, a broadening recovery with improving Prime-market breadth would support a more durable shift toward stock selection. Cash equities in Tokyo are closed on 3 November, so the 4 November open will absorb two full U.S. sessions. SOX, USD/JPY and U.S. yields across both nights are the external checks. **Sources.** [Reuters — Tokyo Electron outlook and semiconductor demand](https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/tokyo-electron-sees-robust-profit-growth-amid-jitters-over-ai-returns-2026-10-30/?ref=tokyobrainie.ghost.io) · [Tokyo Electron IR](https://www.tel.co.jp/ir/?ref=tokyobrainie.ghost.io) · [Kioxia Holdings IR](https://www.kioxia-holdings.com/ja-jp/ir/news.html?ref=tokyobrainie.ghost.io) · [MarketPress — Tokyo morning close](https://marketpress.jp/market/216217/?ref=tokyobrainie.ghost.io) · [Kabutan — 10:00 market and contribution data](https://minkabu.jp/news/4648075?ref=tokyobrainie.ghost.io) · [Kabutan — 11:00 market and contribution data](https://s.kabutan.jp/news/n202611020384/?ref=tokyobrainie.ghost.io) --- **Event time:** 31 October 2026, 10:30 JST (09:30 China time) **Verified:** 1 November 2026, 07:19 JST China's official manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3 in October from 50.1 in September, below the 50.0 market consensus reported by Reuters. The official non-manufacturing business activity index dropped to 49.7, while the composite PMI output index also fell to 49.7\. Production (49.8) and new manufacturing orders (49.4) moved below the expansion threshold; non-manufacturing new orders were weaker at 44.4. This adds a cyclical-demand risk layer to the existing Monday setup of a 7.2% SOX decline and sharp Japanese PTS selling. It matters most for China-sensitive machinery, materials, factory automation, construction equipment and parts of the semiconductor supply chain. The data do not prove an AI or semiconductor-demand collapse. China's high-tech manufacturing PMI remained at 51.3 and equipment manufacturing at 50.6\. The official commentary also said production and new orders in railway, shipbuilding, aerospace, computer, communications and electronics industries were at or above 53.0\. The correct interpretation is a two-speed economy: broad demand weakened, while selected advanced-manufacturing segments continued to expand. For Tokyo on 2 November, the first test is whether chip leaders can absorb both the U.S. sector shock and the softer China macro signal. The second comes at 10:30 JST, when mainland China and Hong Kong cash markets open. A recovery above opening prices and intraday VWAP, together with resilient Chinese technology shares, would weaken the broad-risk-off thesis. Failure to recover, especially in China-exposed cyclicals, would strengthen it. **Sources:** [National Bureau of Statistics of China, October PMI release](https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfbhjd/202610/t20261031%5F1965718.html?ref=tokyobrainie.ghost.io) · [Official NBS interpretation](https://www.stats.gov.cn/zwfwck/sjfb/202610/t20261031%5F1965719.html?ref=tokyobrainie.ghost.io) · [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/chinas-october-factory-activity-contracts-fastest-pace-3-months-pmi-survey-shows-2026-10-31/?ref=tokyobrainie.ghost.io) --- [Original Notion archive](https://app.notion.com/p/40abc361ccd281d09affc47049e58f4e?pvs=204&ref=tokyobrainie.ghost.io)